March 06, 2020
Psychologists Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky introduced the concept of psychological bias in the early 1970s. They published their findings in their 1982 book, “Judgment Under Uncertainty.”
Cognitive bias is the tendency to make decisions or take action in an illogical way.
They recommend “thinking slowly” to avoid bias.
Confirmation bias happens when you look for information that supports your existing beliefs, and reject data that go against what you believe. This can lead you to make biased decisions, because you don’t factor in all of the relevant information.
People have a tendency to infer information from statistics that support their existing beliefs, even when the data support an opposing view. That makes confirmation bias a potentially serious problem to overcome when you need to make a statistics-based decision.
This is the tendency to blame others when things go wrong, instead of looking objectively at the situation. In particular, you may blame or judge someone based on a stereotype or a perceived personality flaw.
Delta is the 2018FA to 2019FA change. Five years of data for historical trend.
Students who took another transfer level math course–188 or above. We didn’t get any extra “completers” from this category and total remains fairly constant over time.
These students took a below transfer level math course. We didn’t get any extra “completers” from this group either which is unfortunate since the group increased by 91.
The increase in “completers” came solely from this category.
We all know that stochastic processes display random variation. The question is whether we can conclude there is a change given the magnitude of the change compared to historical data.
Fall 2019 comparison of pass, fail, and withdraw rates.
|P||64.5% (586)||81.7% (85)||56.9% (173)||47.1% (41)||69.3% (287)|
|F||13.2% (120)||4.8% (5)||16.8% (51)||14.9% (13)||12.3% (51)|
|W||22.3% (203)||13.5% (14)||26.3% (80)||37.9% (33)||18.4% (76)|
|Total||100.0% (909)||100.0% (104)||100.0% (304)||100.0% (87)||100.0% (414)|