Nationalist.sagews

import random  # imports random function
import numpy  # imports numerical computing capabilities

global chanceoffarleft  # defines these variables as global
global chanceoffarright
global chanceofcentreleft
global chanceofcentreright 
global chanceofnationalist
global averageelectorate
global seatsinparliament
global welshseats
global scotseats
global irishseats

chanceoffarleft = 0.1  # establishes standard chances of each party based loosely on polling data
chanceoffarright = 0.1
chanceofcentreleft = 0.3
chanceofcentreright = 0.3
chanceofnationalist = 0
averageelectorate = 700  # 1/100 of the average electorate (reduced to reduce computations needed)
seatsinparliament = 650  # seats in uk parliament
welshseats = 40  # number of constituencies in Wales
scotseats = 59  # number of constituencies in Scotland
northernirishseats = 18  # number of constituencies in Northern Ireland

def vote():
    """
    A function to simulate one vote
    Arguments: self explanatory: probabilities of each party
    Output: vote
    """
    chance = [chanceoffarleft,chanceoffarright,chanceofcentreleft,chanceofcentreright, chanceofnationalist, (1-(chanceoffarleft+chanceoffarright+chanceofcentreleft+chanceofcentreright+chanceofnationalist))] 
    result = ["farleft","farright","centreleft","centreright", "nationalist", "disenfranchised"]
    return (numpy.random.choice(result, p=chance))  # chooses result at random with probability given



def constituencyelection():
    """
    A function to simulate a constituency election, decided by individual voters
    Arguments: votes as decided by function 'vote'
    Output: one winner: whichever party has the most votes, followed by the vote data for use in calculating misrepresentation error
    """
    votescast = 0
    farleftvote = 0
    farrightvote = 0
    centreleftvote = 0
    centrerightvote = 0
    nationalistvote = 0
    spoiltballots = 0

    while votescast < averageelectorate:
        v = vote()
        if v == "farleft":
            farleftvote+=1
        elif v == "farright":
            farrightvote+=1
        elif v == "centreleft":
            centreleftvote+=1
        elif v == "centreright":
            centrerightvote+=1
        elif v == "nationalist":
            nationalistvote = 0
        elif v == "disenfranchised":
            spoiltballots+=1
        votescast+=1

    if farleftvote == max(farleftvote, farrightvote, centreleftvote, centrerightvote, nationalistvote):
        return "farleft victory", farleftvote, farrightvote, centreleftvote, centrerightvote, nationalistvote
    elif farrightvote == max(farleftvote, farrightvote, centreleftvote, centrerightvote, nationalistvote):
        return "farright victory", farleftvote, farrightvote, centreleftvote, centrerightvote, nationalistvote
    elif centreleftvote == max(farleftvote, farrightvote, centreleftvote, centrerightvote, nationalistvote):
        return "centreleft victory", farleftvote, farrightvote, centreleftvote, centrerightvote, nationalistvote
    elif centrerightvote == max(farleftvote, farrightvote, centreleftvote, centrerightvote, nationalistvote):
        return "centreright victory", farleftvote, farrightvote, centreleftvote, centrerightvote, nationalistvote
    elif nationalistvote == max(farleftvote, farrightvote, centreleftvote, centrerightvote, nationalistvote):
        return "nationalist victory", farleftvote, farrightvote, centreleftvote, centrerightvote, nationalistvote


def generalelection(numberofelections = 3):
    """
    A function to simulate the results of a general election based on results from constituency elections
    Arguments: seats decided by constituency elections
    Output: one winner: whichever party has won the most seats, misrepresentation error- the combined difference between the proportion of votes gained and seats gained per party
    """
    global chanceoffarleft
    global chanceoffarright
    global chanceofcentreleft
    global chanceofcentreright
    
    global averageelectorate
    global seatsinparliament
    global welshseats
    global scotseats
    global irishseats
    misrepresentationerror = []
    while numberofelections > 0:
        seatsdecided = 0
        welshseatsdecided = 0
        scotseatsdecided = 0
        northernirishseatsdecided = 0
        farleftseats = 0
        farrightseats = 0
        centreleftseats = 0
        centrerightseats = 0
        welshnatseats = 0
        scotnatseats = 0
        irishnatseats = 0
        totalfarleftvote = 0
        totalfarrightvote = 0
        totalcentrerightvote = 0
        totalcentreleftvote = 0
        totalnationalistvote = 0

        while seatsdecided < seatsinparliament:
            while welshseatsdecided < welshseats:
                chanceofnationalist = 0.1  # redefines chances of each party based loosely on polling data
                s = constituencyelection()
                totalfarleftvote += s[1]  # adds the second element in the output of constituencyelection()
                totalfarrightvote += s[2]
                totalcentreleftvote += s[3]
                totalcentrerightvote += s[4]
                totalnationalistvote += s[5]
                if s[0] == "farleft victory":
                    farleftseats += 1
                elif s[0] == "farright victory":
                    farrightseats += 1
                elif s[0] == "centreleft victory":
                    centreleftseats += 1
                elif s[0] == "centreright victory":
                    centrerightseats += 1
                elif s[0] == "nationalist victory":
                    welshnatseats += 1
                welshseatsdecided += 1
                seatsdecided += 1
            while scotseatsdecided < scotseats:
                chanceofnationalist = 0.4
                chanceoffarright = 0.05
                chanceoffarleft = 0.05
                chanceofcentreright = 0.2
                chanceofcentreleft = 0.2
                s = constituencyelection()
                totalfarleftvote += s[1]
                totalfarrightvote += s[2]
                totalcentreleftvote += s[3]
                totalcentrerightvote += s[4]
                totalnationalistvote += s[5]
                if s[0] == "farleft victory":
                    farleftseats += 1
                elif s[0] == "farright victory":
                    farrightseats += 1
                elif s[0] == "centreleft victory":
                    centreleftseats += 1
                elif s[0] == "centreright victory":
                    centrerightseats += 1
                elif s[0] == "nationalist victory":
                    scotnatseats += 1
                scotseatsdecided += 1
                seatsdecided += 1
            while northernirishseatsdecided < northernirishseats:
                chanceoffarright = chanceoffarleft = 0.05
                chanceofcentreright = chanceofcentreleft = chanceofnationalist = 0.25
                s = constituencyelection()
                totalfarleftvote += s[1]
                totalfarrightvote += s[2]
                totalcentreleftvote += s[3]
                totalcentrerightvote += s[4]
                totalnationalistvote += s[5]
                if s[0] == "farleft victory":
                    farleftseats += 1
                elif s[0] == "farright victory":
                    farrightseats += 1
                elif s[0] == "centreleft victory":
                    centreleftseats += 1
                elif s[0] == "centreright victory":
                    centrerightseats += 1
                elif s[0] == "nationalist victory":
                    irishnatseats += 1
                northernirishseatsdecided += 1
                seatsdecided += 1
            chanceoffarleft = 0.1
            chanceoffarright = 0.1
            chanceofcentreleft = 0.3
            chanceofcentreright = 0.3
            chanceofnationalist = 0
            s = constituencyelection()
            totalfarleftvote += s[1]
            totalfarrightvote += s[2]
            totalcentreleftvote += s[3]
            totalcentrerightvote += s[4]

            if s[0] == "farleft victory":
                farleftseats += 1
            elif s[0] == "farright victory":
                farrightseats += 1
            elif s[0] == "centreleft victory":
                centreleftseats += 1
            elif s[0] == "centreright victory":
                centrerightseats += 1
            seatsdecided += 1
        error = 100 * float(abs(totalfarleftvote/(seatsinparliament * averageelectorate) - farleftseats/seatsinparliament) + abs(totalfarrightvote/(seatsinparliament * averageelectorate) - farrightseats/seatsinparliament) + abs(totalcentreleftvote/(seatsinparliament * averageelectorate) - centreleftseats/seatsinparliament) + abs(totalcentrerightvote/(seatsinparliament * averageelectorate) - centrerightseats/seatsinparliament) + abs(totalnationalistvote/(seatsinparliament * averageelectorate) - (welshnatseats + scotnatseats + irishnatseats)/seatsinparliament))
        misrepresentationerror.append(error)  # creates list of misrepresentation errors in each election held
        if farleftseats == max(farleftseats, farrightseats, centreleftseats, centrerightseats, welshnatseats + scotnatseats + irishnatseats):
            print("farleft government", totalfarleftvote, totalfarrightvote, totalcentreleftvote, totalcentrerightvote, totalnationalistvote, farleftseats, farrightseats, centreleftseats, centrerightseats, welshnatseats + scotnatseats + irishnatseats, error)

        elif farrightseats == max(farleftseats, farrightseats, centreleftseats, centrerightseats, welshnatseats + scotnatseats + irishnatseats):
            print("farright government", totalfarleftvote, totalfarrightvote, totalcentreleftvote, totalcentrerightvote, totalnationalistvote, farleftseats, farrightseats, centreleftseats, centrerightseats, welshnatseats + scotnatseats + irishnatseats, error)

        elif centreleftseats == max(farleftseats, farrightseats, centreleftseats, centrerightseats, welshnatseats + scotnatseats + irishnatseats):
            print("centreleft government", totalfarleftvote, totalfarrightvote, totalcentreleftvote, totalcentrerightvote, totalnationalistvote, farleftseats, farrightseats, centreleftseats, centrerightseats, welshnatseats + scotnatseats + irishnatseats, error)

        elif centrerightseats == max(farleftseats, farrightseats, centreleftseats, centrerightseats, welshnatseats + scotnatseats + irishnatseats):
            print("centreright government", totalfarleftvote, totalfarrightvote, totalcentreleftvote, totalcentrerightvote, totalnationalistvote, farleftseats, farrightseats, centreleftseats, centrerightseats, welshnatseats + scotnatseats + irishnatseats, error)

        elif welshnatseats + scotnatseats + irishnatseats == max(farleftseats, farrightseats, centreleftseats, centrerightseats, welshnatseats + scotnatseats + irishnatseats):
            print("monarchy is overthrown", totalfarleftvote, totalfarrightvote, totalcentreleftvote, totalcentrerightvote, totalnationalistvote, farleftseats, farrightseats, centreleftseats, centrerightseats, welshnatseats + scotnatseats + irishnatseats, error)  # it must be noted that this is an impossible eventuality given the combined number of Welsh, Scottish and Northern Irish seats is never going to be enough to form a majority in parliament


        chanceoffarleft = (2/3) * (totalfarleftvote / (averageelectorate * seatsinparliament))  # represents fringe party voters losing support over time
        chanceoffarright = (2/3) * (totalfarrightvote / (averageelectorate * seatsinparliament))
        chanceofcentreleft = (totalcentreleftvote / (averageelectorate * seatsinparliament)) + (1/6) * (totalfarleftvote / (averageelectorate * seatsinparliament))  # gains votes from fringe party supporters
        chanceofcentreright = (totalcentrerightvote / (averageelectorate * seatsinparliament)) + (1/6) * (totalfarrightvote / (averageelectorate * seatsinparliament))
        numberofelections -= 1
    print misrepresentationerror
    #p = list_plot(misrepresentationerror)  # plots misrepresentation error changing at each subsequent election
    


generalelection()